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Post by Len Philpot on Nov 1, 2018 12:35:36 GMT -6
Is it too early to start obsessing over the weather forecast? That's better than it was a few days ago, so here's hoping... Keep in mind you can also go to the Weather page on the DSSG forums for weather information.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2018 15:23:53 GMT -6
What weather page gave this optimistic forecast? The weather channel is a bit more pessimistic. And on another note, what is there to do if the weather is bad on a given night?
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Post by SteveE on Nov 2, 2018 15:33:46 GMT -6
Weather Channel's looking about the same overall.
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Post by Len Philpot on Nov 2, 2018 17:49:42 GMT -6
What weather page gave this optimistic forecast? The weather channel is a bit more pessimistic. And on another note, what is there to do if the weather is bad on a given night? That came from Weather Underground, which is owned by The Weather Company (which also owns the Weather Channel and the whole shebang is owned by IBM, but I digress). I'm no forecaster, but I've seen again and again that the Weather Channel is keenly aware that they live and die by ratings. I'm surprised they've not named a winter storm "Nielsen" so far... If everyone says it'll be warm, the WC says it'll be hotter. If everyone says there'll be a little rain, the WC says it'll flood. And so it goes. So, who knows? No one, but we'll get what we get. And the worst day at a star party is better than the best day at work! If the weather is bad, you have several choices: Sleep, read, movie (maybe?), eat, walk around in the rain...
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Post by bsimon615 on Nov 3, 2018 9:04:53 GMT -6
Star Parties (star gazes) like the Deep South Star Gaze are as long as they are because there is always the likely possibility that one or more days or nights will have bad weather or at least cloud cover that will prevent observing. 2018 as a whole has not been a good one, weather-wise for star parties across the country. The Peach State Star Party in Georgia was pretty much a bust, and Okie-Tex in the far western panhandle of Oklahoma was a mega-bust. During the whole week there observers had just about a 45 minute window in which to view the sky thru a hole in the clouds.
Last spring's "Spring Scrimmage" at the Feliciana Retreat Center had excellent weather on Thursday evening, ok weather on Friday evening, and poor weather on Saturday with rain into Saturday night. However for those that stayed, it did clear after midnight and those few people left were able to get some observing in. I am optimistic that for those of us that are going to be at White Horse for 4 or 5 nights, we will get some good observing in. For the few people that are registered and staying for only 1 or 2 nights - attending becomes more of a gamble if your sole purpose for attending is to do some observing under some of the darkest skies you will see in our part of the country.
To answer the question - "What else is there to do?" - We have:
1) Programs - we have 4 programs scheduled - 2 on Friday at 11 am and 12 noon, and 2 on Saturday at 11 am and 12 noon. One of these programs has been provided by Scott Roberts of ExploreScientific and attendance at this program does have a prize (an eyepiece) attached to it. Attend the program and you will get a special ticket for this program only. If 20 people attend everyone there will have a 1 in 20 chance of winning, if only 4 people attend, your 1 in 4 chance of winning the eyepiece is pretty good.
2) Movies - we will have movies available, and it is likely that we will have to have a "Movie Night" on at least one of the five nights of the DSSG.
3) Area activities - on site you can explore the grounds, go visit the horses, hike, etc. Most of us, cloudy or clear will sit under our canopies and just spent some time reconnecting or fiddling with our astronomy equipment. Some will utilize the front porch on the main building to do the same thing. Venturing out from White Horse there are numerous "antique shops" along Hwy 35 in Mississippi and Hwy 21 in Louisiana. Travel up Hwy 35 past Columbia and you will find "The Little Grand Canyon of Mississippi" (Red Bluffs) to explore. I will attach a map showing the way to "The Little Grand Canyon" later today.
4) Door Prize Drawings - in addition to the special eyepiece give away, we have plenty of prizes to give away. Door prize drawings will be at 3 pm every afternoon and you must be there to win. Weather permitting, the door prize drawings will be on the Arena Field (will figure out exactly where once we fill that field and see where we have the space to have attendees congregate). One prize per day on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and multiple prizes on Friday and Saturday. Please note that this year our registration is low. I expect that our final registration will just barely eclipse the registration we had the very first year of the Deep South back in 1983. That year our registration was 53 and right now we are at 49. I think there are multiple reasons for our lower registration this year including going to a new location with the lack of private rooms which I know are important to some registrants but believe me the skies are darker here and we have lower horizons which trumps the lack of private rooms. Other factors may include the November dates, other schedule conflicts (I have talked to several that really wanted to come, but they have conflicts on their calendar), health issues, and some already spent their vacation time going to events like Okie-Tex.
On the positive side, the lower registration means that chances of winning a door prize is higher for everyone in attendance as we will have fewer tickets in the competition.
On the negative side however we are not meeting the minimum attendance requirement that I thought we would easily meet (which is 25 people per night in the bunk houses). This has created a problem which is mostly smoothed over but only with the commitment that I supplement the lower headcount with 50% of our registration receipts. This has been done with the only chance of a credit back at the end of the star gaze if our numbers suddenly bump up. I can see that partially happening but not completely. Dipping into our registration receipts also means that there will be less money available to purchase door prizes next year. Note - this year I lowered our registration fees, unavoidably I will have to raise them for next year, perhaps to the previous level, or maybe an additional $5.00 beyond that. Note - at White Horse our fees - registration, lodging, meals - are lower than what we were paying at the Feliciana Retreat Center.
After this fall's Deep South I will sit down with Carol and see what (if anything) we can work out for next fall's 37th Annual Deep South Star Gaze. Hopefully great skies will help sell the venue to others that are not attending this year. I feel somewhat uneasy about next fall if I do not feel strongly that we will be able to improve our numbers. I feel very uneasy about the possibility of doing a Spring Scrimmage next April with the numbers we typically have for those. Typically we get 20 to 30 people for a Spring Scrimmage. Time will tell and I believe we need to brain storm this at the Deep South next week. One possibility is raising the registration fees knowing that some of it will be needed to supplement lower registrations with the venue. Another possibility, or maybe a combination of the two will be to invite more non-astronomers, non-club members to the DSSG. Doing that will help, but also create some problems (light control and people wanting to come and go during dark hours). Personally I really do not want to do that but everything is open to discussion.
Questions? Please ask.
Barry Simon
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Post by Len Philpot on Nov 3, 2018 13:30:32 GMT -6
Weather forecasts come and weather forecasts go, but here's how it looks right now (from Intellicast / Weather Underground): It's not as obvious in this graph view, but the forecast basically calls for clear to partly cloudy skies Tuesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights. One interesting (and possibly nice, if it holds) thing above is the way the dew point stays decently below temperature for the most part. I'll never expect no dew, but that's not as bad as I've seen it all too often and the humidity never maxes out. Still, time will tell. Attendance? One factor, which is not a 'fault' nor 'blame' thing, but I suspect is still a factor, is that over the years there seem to be fewer and fewer of us who apparently have little enough of a life to attend regardless of weather. Some attend purely for observing, others for the social aspect, many for both. But it seems to me that there are fewer now than in the past who see it as a "gathering of friends" and can virtually be counted on to attend if physically possible - Rain or not. That's no one's fault and there are many perfectly legitimate reasons not to attend so that's not a criticism, just an observation. Can that be addressed (or indeed, should we even attempt)? Dunno. Trying to make it more social has its own set of potential drawbacks, as Barry alluded to. If we could (and wanted) stay above some critical mass in terms of size the inertia of the event could help sustain a stronger outreach flavor to the star gaze. But without enough overhead to handle it, it could quickly cut into those who want to "just observe".
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2018 13:40:00 GMT -6
The weather forecast is all interesting. But different forecasters give different information. And the forecast seems to change from hour to hour. So, as the Benevolent Dictator for Life has said elsewhere, you pays your money and takes your chances.
A loyal follower
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